A surge of YOLO and FOMO-addled Millennial buyers rushing into mortgages in Q1 of ’22 to avoid high home loan costs. Runaway infections causing the CB to take its foot off the brake and delay rate hikes.
As this relates to real estate, says LePage boss Phil Soper: (a) the central bank will delay raising rates as a result and (b) more Covid will cause extra demand for residential real estate. Politicians failed to see this coming and are powerless to stop the tide. Two days ago governments gave up, withdrawing easy-to-obtain testing, halting accurate infection counts, allowing schools to stay open despite outbreaks, hacking the quarantine period and even allowing sick health care workers into the workplace. Now, after the collapse in Irish house prices, the number is just 5%. Let’s compare with Ireland, where the real estate market crumbled into an scary economy-sucking crisis after the ratio touched 43%. In 2000 investment in residential real estate accounted for 22% of it. Only four times in history (say Zoocasa’s stats) has the national inventory of houses for sale dropped below the two-month mark. Should we worry about that? Could this flip and take down the Canadian economy? RRSP contributions have been going down and household debt’s been rising. But be confident, because the post-pandemic reopening trade has years to go. Equity markets will likely see a lot of new, new highs. Higher rates and more volatility but, basically, an abundance of ponies and puppies. On the first day of the year, my suspender-flipping portfolio manager bud told you what he expects in 2022.